Study: Is there a “magic timing” to drop “Covit-19” preventive measures?

Dubai, United Arab Emirates (CNN) – Hospital admission rates for corona virus infection in the United States have dropped to a new record, with most states reducing the level of infection in local communities, and as of March 25, 50 states have dropped safety masks.

But is there a price in exchange for lifting preventive measures and returning to normal life before infection?

Researchers who took part in a new study published in the American Medical Association’s Health Forum magazine on Friday expect that the abandonment of masks and social exclusion measures in March 2022 will all lead to a resurgence in the death toll. Based on the expectations of the Govt-19 ”model simulation in most states.

The study also revealed that postponing the abandonment of preventive measures would not protect against an increase in the number of deaths in these states, and concluded that there was no “magic time” to abandon preventive measures.

The study estimates that the number of deaths caused by the “Kovit-19” epidemic in 50 U.S. states, Columbia and Puerto Rico between March 1 and December 31, 2022 is based on a simulation of the “Kovit-19” drop. 19 ”Restrictions at different times.They estimate the number of reported deaths, based on current expectations of the infection, and vaccination rates, from the year the researchers conducted it. Risk among age groups.

“Postponement of deregulation of Govt-19 in each state will not increase morbidity and mortality rates,” the study said.

According to the study, deregulation in almost every state, and at any time in 2022, could lead to a higher mortality rate from “Covit-19” again, similar to that recorded during the “Omigron” eruption. This strain is spreading fast.

However, when researchers reviewed the potential of low-infection alpha and delta mutants, they did not find a similar increase in the number of deaths.

“If we did not have Omigron, we would not have a problem,” said Dr. Benjamin Linas, a research associate professor of medicine at Boston University School of Medicine.

Postponement of abandonment of preventive measures had a different effect on the death rate from “Govt-19” in each state.

In California, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon, one month of restrictions on corona helped stabilize the mortality rate, although this did not prevent death rates from rising at any time. The authors wrote that delaying the removal of restrictions would help reduce the burden of mass hospitalization in these states.

The study found that when deregulation was lifted in the states of Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Ohio, “Covit-19” restrictions were imposed for a longer period of time, resulting in a record death rate. Linas pointed out that weakened immunity may be due to these states having lower rates of natural immunity acquired after infection.

Meanwhile, in Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Tennessee and Washington, the expected record death rate is relatively similar, despite simulations delaying deregulation. In these states, lasting restrictions will not shift the burden of disease on society.

To those states, Linas said, “It’s a matter of changing the vaccine rate and immunity, that’s the way out.”

He explained that cost-benefit analysis is needed to set a date for abandonment of preventive measures. On the one hand, some states need to balance the burden of delaying the increase in the number of deaths, on the other hand.

Linas expressed his desire that policymakers should carry out research and focus on the goal of mitigation policies and try to get the honest dialogue we need now.

The study used a simulation model based on several hypotheses, and it is not possible to predict the speed and severity of the disease caused by future mutations. The model does not take into account the travel between states and the role it plays in the exchange.

In addition, people can continue to wear masks and maintain social distance even after the restrictions are lifted, which may alleviate the high number of deaths.