Experts say companies are likely to embrace automation, which may not be as efficient as human labor, so they don’t have to spend as much money on workers.
- author, Megan Moran
- stock, BBC
The adoption of artificial intelligence is changing the nature of jobs and the time it takes to do them, and it will also lead to changes in workers’ wages.
Gradually, AI is already infiltrating the daily workflows of many employees, and as companies adopt the technology, it forces others to consider what AI capabilities they need to keep their jobs secure.
Experts say artificial intelligence won’t steal all our jobs. The process, they say, may involve employees integrating their work with machines, and as artificial intelligence eliminates manual and repetitive tasks, the role of workers may become more complex.
Instead, employees will focus their time on uniquely human tasks that cannot be dominated by AI — creative problem-solving, interpersonal communication — so they can produce more and better results.
It’s tempting to think that if workers take on more intellectually demanding roles or see their productivity rise as they take advantage of AI, wages will evolve along with it.
If job descriptions change and workers contribute more, monetary compensation should, in theory, follow.
However, experts say the outlook can be more complicated for workers with different skill levels.
Increase up, or decrease down?
As AI frees up some of the mundane tasks that take up employees’ time every day, especially in knowledge-related work roles, experts expect many jobs to become more complex and creative. Productivity can also rise as workers forego the time-consuming finesse of machines. For some employees, this means changing core job functions—and increasing their productivity and volume.
Some companies may increase the salaries of employees when they take on new assignments. But some experts, including MIT economics professor Darren Acemoglu, are skeptical that all workers will see a pay rise as AI forces them to do more work.
“We should not expect automation, or the automation of work, to increase wages out of proportion to productivity growth,” Acemoglu says in a 2019 paper he co-authored with his colleague Pasquale Restrepo.
One reason, he believes, is that financial gains from increased labor productivity are usually absorbed by the company, and workers are not given a share of that as better compensation.
Harry J., an economist and professor of public policy at Georgetown University. Holzer says research shows that AI is shifting revenue from the worker to the company.
Germany, France, Spain and the Netherlands According to an economic study by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, automation in workers’ jobs shifted productivity gains to shareholders, not warehouse workers’ salaries.
For hourly and shift workers, often in low-skilled industries, AI will limit their earning potential. One concern, experts say, is that workers may end up working less as parts of their jobs become automated.
Although current automation technology doesn’t match the standards of human labor, companies are increasingly accepting what they call “automation” rather than paying workers — even if their wages aren’t great. He warns that this will become an even bigger problem as technology advances more and more.
Increased labor control can affect wages for all workers at all skill levels. Many companies are already using AI to measure productivity and set wages accordingly, says Veena Tubal, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine.
His research shows that these ratings can lead to lower wages and inequality between wages paid to workers, which he calls “arithmetic pay discrimination – rating workers on different scales based on an AI assessment that the worker doesn’t understand.” He believes that if companies invest heavily in productivity tracking technologies, the problem will only get worse.
However, a group of workers may receive a pay rise as AI is integrated into the workplace.
Mark Morrow, senior fellow and policy director for the Urban Policy Program at the Brookings Institution, said top workers may be more insulated from wage disparities — especially if they facilitate and decide on processes where AI is used in their workplaces. For example, “some of the people who manage it all or do the most complex work may get paid more.”
Leveling the playing field?
But talk of artificial intelligence and salaries doesn’t just revolve around the issue of raising wages, keeping them the same, or lowering them. Some experts say the advent of artificial intelligence in the workplace could help close the wage disparity gap between high- and low-skilled workers in many demographics.
David Autor, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says AI could lower barriers to high-skill jobs by eliminating the need for the traditional, elite higher education typically required for high-level roles. With AI, a diverse workforce can acquire specialized expertise quickly and to a greater extent – meaning that roles that were once decision makers may become increasingly scarce.
“AI can create a scenario that alleviates the lack of high-level expertise,” Autor adds.
And as more workers with diverse backgrounds work with AI, “this opens the door for non-traditional applicants, especially those without a four-year degree,” to quickly acquire high-level skills typically reserved for elite subject matter experts.
Entertainment writers are among the workers currently on strike, worried about low income and short working hours.
“If the demand for highly specialized knowledge persists” in industries like engineering, medicine, computer science and law, he says, “this will mean more jobs for non-traditional candidates who, with the help of AI, can work at a higher level of expertise,” he says. “This will level the playing field.”
In this situation it is possible that professionals who have never been exposed to it may experience a decrease in their wages due to more competition in the labor market. But more workers in a variety of industries will earn higher wages than they currently earn in low-skilled jobs that don’t require a college degree.
As technology is still evolving, Morey says it’s going to be a tough time for every worker.
Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology asserts that the outcome of debates about worker wages and other AI-related workplace issues will greatly affect decision-making about how the technology is developed and used, and subsequent protections for workers.
Workers can play a role, Dubal says, and to help steer these decisions in a human-friendly direction, he recommends organizing the workplace to help workers maintain stable financial income and protect their earning potential.
For example, if workers can “sit at the table with employers and regulators,” they can help companies understand the intrinsic value of human labor. He points to European workers who are advocating for “certain laws restricting the use of AI in certain contexts, such as the AI Developments Act.”
It is currently unclear which types of workers will be most affected by AI. Some experts said high-skilled workers are just as vulnerable to automation as their lower-skilled colleagues. But Morey says “no one can escape here”.
Experts say companies are likely to embrace automation, which may not be as efficient as human labor, so they don’t have to spend as much money on workers.
Entertainment writers are among the workers currently on strike, worried about low income and short working hours.
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