A recent study published in the scientific journal The Lancet suggests that the planet’s population will peak in 4 to 5 decades, and that this number will begin to decline gradually in the coming decades, especially in developed countries. The aging rate increases as fertility rates decrease.
The world population is currently about 7.8 billion, and experts expect that number to peak at 9.7 billion by 2064. The study indicates that the world’s population will continue to decline until it reaches 8.79 billion by 2100, after 79 years, after reaching its peak.
The study, which estimates that the population of about 23 countries will halve, includes Japan, Thailand, Italy, Portugal and South Korea due to low fertility and high aging rates.
He said China, the world’s most populous country, could not escape the recession and that its population would shrink from 1.4 billion to 732 million by 2100.
Sten Emil Folset, a researcher at the University of Washington’s Health Metrics and Assessment, explained the reasons for this planned collapse.
Folset, who oversaw the study, said that “the last decline in the world’s population occurred in the middle of the fourteenth century, and this is known as the Black Plague or Bubonic Plague.” Historically, the decline as a result of infertility has been caused by diseases and famines before, i.e. by compelling factors. “
In contrast to the decline in some countries, the population is expected to increase in other countries, particularly in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. The population is expected to triple from 1.03 billion people. 3.07 billion people from 2017 to 2100.
“Africa and the Arab world will shape the future, while the influence of Europe and Asia will recede,” Fulset said. At the end of this century, India, Nigeria, China and the United States will become the dominant powers and the world will become multi-polar.
The American researcher attributed the decline in fertility to two main factors, namely, the ease of access to contraception thanks to modern medicine, in addition to the education of women and girls.